Ryan Morfin: Welcome to Non Beta Alpha. I’m Ryan Morfin. On today’s episode, we have Rick Dennen, CEO and founder of Oak Street Funding, talking to us about the RA landscape and how M&A is being financed today. This is Non Beta Alpha.
Ryan Morfin: Rick, welcome to the show. Thank you for joining us, sir.
Rick Dennen: Good afternoon, Ryan. How are you today?
Ryan Morfin: Ah, fantastic. Well, I really appreciate you coming on today and talking a little bit about the macro economic backdrop, the credit environment, and what’s going on in the RA landscape. I’ll just kick it off with the first question. What is your perspective? Where are we from a macro economic perspective? You said it in an interesting, see a lot of deals in the wealth management landscape. How is the wealth management industry looking, and how is the macro economic backdrop in your opinion?
Rick Dennen: A bit of a loaded question. There’s a lot there. I think sitting in the seat we are, there’s a new proposal on a stimulus package here. We went through 710, 720 billion through PPP already. Seeing how that’s going to shake out, I think we’ll have a lot to determine how businesses sustain themselves, what’s going on with the unemployment, how spending continues and what inflationary pressures or inflationary items we might have going forward. From a credit perspective, what we’ve seen is that the stimulus that did come out and the PPP loans impacted a lot of our smaller customers, but the larger customers that we’ve had and some of the larger deals and the M&A has absolutely continued for us.
Ryan Morfin: From the credit perspective, are you seeing new covenants popup in loan agreements or is the cost of capital changed for risk appetites?
Rick Dennen: My guess is that there might be, with certain banks, Ryan, I will tell you we haven’t changed our credit standards one bit. I will tell you that we’re looking for some more current information. We’re looking to see how the firms reacted from their highs, of AUMs probably at the end of February, to where they are today to kind of understand the position. We’re also looking at, as I mentioned earlier, the PPP funds that they took. Those government funds will step in line of a first lien lender. There are four, if they don’t get forgiven and in essence convert to like an equity piece, that’s going to be that debt that would stand above ours. We really need to understand how much was taken, how was it utilized and how is it going to be forgiven? We’re kind of tracking that stuff, but as far as leverage covenants, debt service coverage, we’re basically 100% consistent with where we were prior.
Ryan Morfin: I know the SBA Secretary Carranza’s office hasn’t opened the portal yet, but I’m wondering what your thoughts are. Has the political environment changed the program dramatically and is it creating uncertainty for lenders that have given these loans thinking they were going to get forgiven. Is there any risk into the kind of capital structure of companies that took the notes?
Rick Dennen: What I would say is I think anytime you’re dealing with the SBA, they always have the potential. I would say historically, consistently change the rules kind of as you go along. I think we’re seeing something similar to that. The SBA would typically put out about $25 billion a year. When you look at and try to segment the PPP loans that were out there, up to $10 million and how they plan to forgive those, the rules are constantly changing and I think still in evolution.
I’m always concerned about that and what the SBA can do there. If they’re not going to be forgiven, what is the risk to the bank? I would say that doing a 1% loan, there’s not a whole lot of margin and those deals that banks did, but I think the banks frankly, did a really nice job propping up a program in about a one to two-week period of time I would say on average, depending on which bank you are, to be able to put a brand new product with new criteria and really undefined criteria through systems, put teams together and get the money out as quickly as they did. Phase one, I think they ran through 350 billion in two and a half to three weeks, and that’s pretty impressive for these large institutions to do.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah. I really do think Chairman Paul and the treasury department and Secretary Mnuchin, and I think they did a great job. I mean, in March, no one wants, everyone’s got a Monday morning quarterback this, but nobody knew what was going to go down a 32% decrease in about two, three weeks. It gave people the time to right size businesses and charter recovery. I’m wondering though, your view, do you think unemployment on the white collar side is going to pick up dramatically from now until the rest of the year?
Rick Dennen: Unemployment defined as increasing? I think that, again, depending on the stimulus package and how quickly we can find a cure to COVID, I think will depend on how quickly people can kind of restart their business. I think there’s going to be certain businesses that, some obviously have accelerated like the Amazon, PayPals, things of that nature, but there’s certain businesses that are just going to take a longer time to recover and their industry may even change and evolve as a result of COVID. I just think it’s dependent, but I think from a white collar perspective, I think that there probably will be some tightening that occurs once the PPP funds have been “forgiven” and people try to right size their organization and look for opportunities to be more efficient.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah. Well, and looking back at the RA industry, the fee for service model has typically predicated, the revenue model’s predicated off of kind of asset valuation levels, where they charge a 1% fee against those assets under management. With the volatility in the asset levels, ie, the indexes as S&P and DOW Jones, how have you guys looked at kind of the earnings profile of RA businesses? Has that changed at all in your opinion?
Rick Dennen: I will tell you, we’re looking more current on the information. For example, like if we closed a deal the 1st of April, for example, we’ve might’ve just previously used year end numbers. Whereas, if we closed the deal the 1st of April, I mean, we’re going to at least get through February numbers and get updates, understanding as quickly, probably move that forward a couple months when the COVID hit on March 15th. You understand my point with trying to see how businesses have positioned the assets, how have they hedged the assets? If the markets were down 30%, were they down 40 or were they down 10? Frankly, a lot of our customers have done a really nice job with their investment profiles to be 50% of what the losses had been in the S&P and in the DOW.
They’ve done a really nice job. Then now, you can look at it and we’re almost back to those all-time highs of the late February period in both of those. The customer base that we see, people that we see active in the market are not people just sitting on the sidelines doing mutual funds. They’re just going to ride up and down with the S&P. We’ve been very pleasantly surprised with our portfolio and the quality of the management teams and what they’ve been able to do through this.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, no, there’s definitely out performance. I think there’s a bull market for good advice today. I look at the underwriting levels of some of these indexes and maybe it’s starting to cause some concern because you’re seeing like the tech darlings, if you will …
PART 1 OF 4 ENDS [00:09:04]
Ryan Morfin: It’s starting to cause some concern because you’re seeing the tech darlings, if you will, irresistible names like, Google, Facebook, Amazon, they’re becoming a bigger percentage in terms of market cap of the overall index. And I’m just wondering if you guys are starting to think maybe there’s a bit of a tech bubble here because of those five names I just mentioned, the other 495 names are down 5% from the highs, which is not too bad if you look at where we’ve come through, but are you guys worried at all about the kind of the tech industry? Are you guys looking at that as maybe a canary in the coal mine?
Rick Dennen: I would say, from our business and lending to on cashflow businesses and the RA space, no, I’m not concerned about it. Personally, when you start talking just from stock pickings and things like that, you see Facebook and Amazon and a couple other firms are talking about antitrust and how big can these companies get. But when you think about potential evolution as a result of COVID and where the world might look in the new normal, to me, those businesses are more prevalent then than they even are today. I think they’ve kind of shown that they can be successful in this environment and I think they’ve shown that they’re going to be sustainable. I mean, you could almost look at Amazon and say, I don’t even know what it’s at today, but it’s probably still a good buy, given on where you think the world’s going to go as a result of COVID. But impact to Oak Street, no, not going to have a big impact to Oak Street.
Ryan Morfin: Well, in your perspective, the macro environment maybe still cloudy, unemployment and inflation, but the Fed’s meeting this week and they’re still doing asset purchases from banks. What is your perspective on negative interest rates and where are we in terms of kind of the banking sector and interest rate environment being so artificially low? Is it hard for banks to make money these days?
Rick Dennen: Certainly with the declining rates and you see it in the earnings that are being released, last week and this week from all of the banks, certainly they’re down, their margins are down as a result of that. They always do better in a rising interest rate environment. But as for negative interest rates, I’m not really a big believer that that’s going to happen. I think there’s a little bit … I think the economy is strong enough that there might be some inflation in certain areas that will hold rates where they are, and with the stimulus, but I really don’t see them moving much in the next 12 to 18 months.
Ryan Morfin: I mean, do you think credit spreads can gap out if there’s some distress on kind of delinquencies or defaults?
Rick Dennen: Yes, I do think credit spreads will widen a bit as well, kind of result of the performance projections, the uncertainty, all those types of things. I think there’ll be some widening spreads. Let me ask you, if you don’t mind me turning it around because I know this is one of your specialties, but what do you think about negative interest rates? I’d love to get your opinion on it.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah. I think we’re negative real rates when you take the kind of the current yield curve and I think you look at … You take inflation adjustments, I think we have negative real rates here. I think that has tremendous issues for dollar denominated assets, but right now we’re the tallest midget in the world and in a world full of midgets. And so I think in that scenario, as long as we can continue to grow with real numbers and real data, because I don’t think anybody believes the data coming out of China right now, that we’ll be the place that capital continues to flow. What I do worry about though, you brought the point about inflation is, I think we’ve gotten good as a financial architecture to flow capital into certain asset classes and that’s inflating assets.
There’s a tremendous divergence between the reality of the economy on the ground and main street and the financial markets. It’s kind of like we’re all sitting as a society in the bucket of a hot air balloon and the balloon took off, but we weren’t tethered to the balloon. I think we’re all looking up and realizing, wait a minute, it’s taken off in a different direction and we’re still stuck in reality of the ground. I think there’s going to be some divergence, but a quick convergence and that might mean a normalization of valuation levels across asset classes. But as long as the FED keeps coming out, not during an election season.
I think it’s going to be a 2021 conversation, no matter who’s elected. It’ll determine how they handle it, if it’s increasing corporate taxes, it’ll happen accelerate faster. If it’s, Hey, let’s borrow more money to invest in infrastructure, maybe that is a productivity enhancement that the market looks favorably over the longterm, but it’s going to depend on how people allocate resources. And if there’s a one party system, run the tables, or if it is a house that is Democrat and a Republican Senate, I mean, that’s probably a good look for the economy and for investors, but yeah. I think there has to be … Yeah. No, that’s right. I hope so.
Well, and I think that’s the genius, the stimulus does. I mean, we’re going to pay for later for sure. But I think the packages they’ve thrown out are buying people some time to figure out what’s up or down. Well, so as you’re looking at putting new capital to work in this environment, and obviously there’s a secular trend towards independence and to RIAs. In your conversations you’ve had with business owners, how has the perspective changing on valuation? Are valuations going to continue to march upward or do you think we’ve kind of hit a plateau and we’re just going to go sideways or down in the future?
Rick Dennen: Well, it’s a good question, one we get asked all the time and there’s all kinds of webinars out there on this stuff. We’ve actually had the benefit, Ryan of kind of watching the insurance industry, which is one that we got into back in 2003 and the amount of capital that came into that industry in 2003. We’ve kind of been through a recession with that industry and we saw that we know what happened to capital. In my opinion, we saw tremendous deal flow in the second quarter of this year, but I think that was a result of a couple of larger deals and some efforts made in the fourth quarter. And even the first quarter of this year, it kind of came to fruition.
Because of the amount of capital that does exist, I personally think that the multiples will go a little bit higher than where they are today. On the deals we’ve seen, we’ve seen a little bit of structural change with maybe five or 10% less down that it goes more to an earn out to make sure that the books transfer and kind of see how this COVID plays out, but like you and I have talked earlier, the markers are kind of back to where they were so the revenue streams are about the same. And if that capital is sitting on the sidelines, that’s just going to start reducing the IRRs on these portfolios of the capital provider.
They still have to get their money out. I think the fourth quarter will be strong with a bunch of people trying to sneak some deals in at the end of the quarter. I think 2021 will be a record year for the RIA industry in valuation multiples as well as dollars going out the door. I can also see on these funds is a couple years down the road, as they start looking for additional capital on their next one, there’s going to always be a little asterisk in the corner on what their IRR was that, Hey, here’s what it is calculated, but if you take out that COVID year, it was actually three to 4% larger. You can kind of see that playing out as well, but bottom line is the amount of…
PART 2 OF 4 ENDS [00:18:04]
Rick Dennen: You can kind of see that playing out as well. But bottom line is the amount of capital that’s here is going to continue to support this industry as it’s kind of proven out. And it’s almost exactly what happened in the insurance industry in the Great Recession.
Ryan Morfin: Well, this one’s a little different obviously, because it’s forcing everybody to adopt digitization and technology, workflow productivity tools. How has your team dealt with kind of this no touch economy, business development effort? What have you guys changed or how are you handling it?
Rick Dennen: That’s probably one of the best questions that I’ve heard in a long time. And it’s something we really have to figure out because so much of our businesses are relationship based, right? So how much relationship do you really get from a Zoom call versus two days with the CEO and the management team of a company that you’re going to lend $25 million to? I mean, there’s a big difference. So we’ve tried to continue with the marketing efforts, going more digital with webinars, partnering with people like yourself and even doing some videos and putting them out there. But it’s not the same as going to a conference or going and sitting with some diligence with a potential customer and kind of walking them through the expertise that you have, the structures that you can put together.
It’s just a different feel. So we’ve tried to go more digital, I think, as everyone else has, but we’re also trying to do Zoom calls and WebEx calls like everybody is as well, but it’s just not the same. So probably the greatest concern going forward is how long is this going to last? We’re not getting out of the market, we’re going to continue to lend, but if this is going to occur for the next three years, then I would say that the potential losses in the portfolio might increase if you’re not really careful with your diligence, if you’re not really up to date on the current information and structuring a very aligned deal between a buyer and a seller and a lender there.
Ryan Morfin: Have you guys been a part of any transactions where buyer and seller never met and they’ve just done due diligence remotely and virtually? Has those going through the pipeline yet?
Rick Dennen: They are going through the pipeline. I have not seen one close, Ryan, that has been a start to finish diligence. Meeting, deal structure, put together an LOI, do your diligence, legal docs, close without a face to face. It can’t happen in my opinion. So that’s kind of that timing issue I talked about and think it is imperative that there’s a solution here pretty quick. And I suspect there is from what I’m reading, but I’m not a scientist either.
Ryan Morfin: Right now I think it was five pharma companies in phase 3 FDA process. So 30,000 people are getting the shots for the vaccines. So I’m hoping we’ve got a one in five shot of getting that done, but the problem is going to be the scaling up, right? Of getting access to it at scale because a lot of these, you got to grow the virus and then you have to inhibit it before you can deliver it. So it could be not until… and I’ve told our management team today. I said, this could be one of those situations where we’re working in this kind of hybrid remote posture for the next year.
Rick Dennen: Yes, I would agree. And I’ve heard different companies. We’ve already kind of put on hold kind of full back to office. I’m back in today and I was in yesterday, but haven’t been in that much. But from our perspective, we’ve got a lot of children, workers with children and things like that and they’ve got to deal with schooling. So we’ve already said, it’s not until at least January of next year. But I agree with you. It could be a whole nother year beyond that.
Ryan Morfin: It is personal question. I mean, in your leader, you have employees with children. I mean, what are your thoughts? I mean, do you think schools should get opened up or should it all go virtual? I mean, it’s a question we’re dealing with and wrestling with here is, how do we handle and help our employees and their children take the distraction of, the most important thing all parents do, which is educate their kids. I mean, how are you guys handling that is as an employer?
Rick Dennen: The one thing we immediately put together is we want to make sure that all of our employees’ children have the resources they need to continue the education. What we don’t want is our kids or anybody really in the world to not be able to stay with where they need to be from an education perspective. So we’ve actually put together a group of people to assess that, first, internally with our people, but then to go see what we can do in the community. We actually have an online learning program that we’ve been doing for about three years now, which has really taken off. But for me personally, I would have been an empty nester here come August. My last one is going off to college.
And I frankly think they’re going to go down to school. And there’s a high probability that after 30 days, a lot of these kids will be coming home. There’s a couple of schools in the Midwest that have divided the colleges up to say, only freshmen and sophomores are allowed back in the fall semester. Juniors and seniors can come back the spring, others that have pushed off the start from an August to a September. We’ve got some local grade schools and high schools that started back this week already. And there’s a lot of concerns. So to put an eight year old with a mask and tell them to sit still and they can’t go out and play and be with their friends, I think that’s going to be a little bit of a struggle. But the important thing here is to make sure that no kid gets left behind and they got the resources they need. And that’s the tough question there.
Ryan Morfin: A lot of kids don’t have laptops or internet at home. That’s like 15 to 20% of the population. So it’s a really important policy question. I commend you guys for making sure that’s a priority. Well, you’re an entrepreneur. You’ve built, sold, rebuilt a business. A lot of our listeners own their own businesses, they’re entrepreneurs, independent minded, financial advisors. What’s some advice you can give them having gone through different cycles about just being an entrepreneur and making lemonade out of lemons?
Rick Dennen: Remember back in my public accounting days, but I mean, cash is king, right? And we had three different owners, Ryan, kind of as we grew this business until we kind of eventually sold it to a strategic. So three different financial sponsors and one of those sponsors actually struggled. They were supposed to be sponsoring us and committed capital and they struggled much more than we did and got taken over. And so you learn from that to be honest with you, but you really have to watch cash flow. You really have to plan and understand your equity position and how you can grow this business. No one knows, as you and I have talked, no one really knows when this is going to end and what the new norm was going to look like. So being able to preserve that capital, learn and position yourself to come out stronger on the opposite side of this is critical to me for these businesses.
And it’s great discussion to have in a Zoom call with potential customers is just how they’re responding to it, how they plan to come out of it, what changes are they making? I hate to say it, if they’re saying, none, that’s probably a little bit of a red flag. Everybody has opportunities here to learn and grow, as did we, as we came through this process and came through the recession and struggled with some liquidity back in 2007. So everybody can come out stronger. It’s what changes are you listening. Are you making changes and positioning yourself properly?
Ryan Morfin: That’s good advice. And from a leadership standpoint too, right? You have a lot of employees. How have you been handling the leadership piece? What are your thoughts on that? Any advice for people who have large groups of employees out there?
Rick Dennen: That’s tough and we’ve been trying different things-
PART 3 OF 4 ENDS [00:27:04]
Rick Dennen: … That stuff, and we’ve been trying different things, stepping up and propping up a PPP program, like we talked, in a week. I will tell you it was two, sometimes three meetings a day with the team of people that was learning, putting it together, building out the IT, rolling it out, seven days a week, you’re talking 12 to 15 hours a day. I mean, it was a lot there to get that going. Then you get to a point, in my opinion, when those slowed down that was too many Zoom calls a day. And you can live and die when you’ve got a computer in your dining room, that you can never get up and get away from it.
The weather was a little bit colder here. People wanted to be inside, and I think there’s a real balance that you have to get up, get away from your computer, turn it off, get away for a couple hours a day, and find the balance here. So, from a leadership perspective, we’re pushing that. We’re trying to balance too many meetings with not too many meetings, but making sure we can really stay in touch with the business and be super close to our customer. So, now everybody is kind of, as a cascades down to the leadership team, has their different management process that they have. And then, how do we communicate best with our customers? But it’s evolving, no doubt about it, day to day. How’ve you guys been doing with it, Ryan?
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, and I think it’s about hyper communication. And so, we’re doing a lot of video communication across the organization, and collaboration tools we’ve implemented, that are actually really cheap and affordable, and user experience on those are pretty well thought out. So it’s places like [Basecamp] or Harvest, to try to help people think about how they’re spending their time and their day. And also, because everyone’s remote today, it’s given managers some transparency on what people are actually working on, so that we can help re-allocate or refocus priorities, because God knows the priorities are changing. Every other week we’re having to deal with new ideas or new solutions for our clients. And like you said, generate new IT frameworks, or get new project management up to task.
So, we’ve been doing a lot of that. From the human element, we did do a kid’s academy this summer. And I think we’re going to probably kick that off again, or get some college students who want to be teachers. We bought a lot of COVID tests, so we’re trying to test our employees and the people coming into the office with children to … There’s just, the data’s there. I mean, there’s no substitute for in-person learning. And so, we think we can augment the virtual teaching between the teacher and the student by having a college age professional in there, to help them stay focused. But yeah, the kids under 10 are not going to wear a mask, or sit in front of computer for six hours a day. It’s just, it’s impossible.
Rick Dennen: You can say kids or adults. It almost applies to the same thing.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, applies to me as well. That’s [crosstalk] right. But, so any silver linings you see for the wealth management industry or the US economy, given the outlook that we have today?
Rick Dennen: I think memories are short lived. I think people forget about these times quickly, like they did even in the recession of eight, nine and 10, and people get back to it pretty quick. It seems like every time there’s an event like this, we come back pretty strong. And you can look at the markets today, like we’ve talked, and see how quickly they’ve come back since February. There might be another drop at some point in time, but the silver lining is, especially for this industry, is revenue levels are probably back where they are. And like we talked about with the opportunities to clean up and right-size some staffing, I think a lot of these companies are going to come off more profitable and even greater margins.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, concur. And over the summer, are there any books you’re reading or places you’re going to for motivation, or thought leadership?
Rick Dennen: Every day, there’s so much information that’s out there. It’s almost information overload. And I’ve been watching some podcasts. I was thinking about it today, that Peter [Schiff] Discussion on gold and silver stocks, and the impact, and where people shouldn’t be investing there. I was looking at that more from how that might impact the RIE industry, and everybody needs to own some of that, and just how high that is today. So, things like that, but I’m always listening and reading on what people’s perspectives are on the M&A industry. That probably comprises 60 to 80% of our loan growth each and every year. So it’s pretty important for us, and I stay pretty in tune with those readings and webinars.
Ryan Morfin: Well Rick, thank you for joining us and sharing your thoughts on where we are. And we’d love to have you back on in a few months, and see how the aperture has either tightened or widened on the recovery here. But, we thank you again for your time.
Rick Dennen: Yeah. Thank you Ryan, certainly enjoy all the podcasts you are doing and all the success you’ve had. Congratulations.
Ryan Morfin: Well thanks a lot Rick. Have a great day.
Rick Dennen: You too.
Ryan Morfin: Thank you for watching NON-BETA ALPHA. And before we go, please remember to like, and subscribe on Apple podcast and our YouTube channel. This is NON-BETA ALPHA, and now you know.
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PART 4 OF 4 ENDS [00:34:47]
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