Hotel Industry Trends and Forecasts with Corey Maple

Ryan Morfin sits down with Corey Maple of Legendary Capital to discuss how the hospitality industry has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis.
Ryan Morfin sits down with Corey Maple of Legendary Capital to discuss how the hospitality industry has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Maple decided to make his initial investments in hotels following the financial crisis of 2008 which later yielded high returns. He predicts that similar yields can be attained following COVID-19 according to market trendlines which predict that the industry should be back on its feet within the next 8 to 24 months.

In contrast, however, Maple suggests that luxury hotel chains that rely more heavily on conferences and other corporate gatherings will have a longer road to recovery and may not be as appealing to investors. Mr. Maple believes that, along with low debt ratios, both customer service and safety assurance can ultimately determine a hotel’s fate.

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Ryan Morfin:                    Welcome to Non-Beta Alpha, I’m Ryan Morfin. On today’s episode, we have Corey Maple, from Legendary Capital, owner operator of 38 hotel properties, coming on the show to tell us a little bit about the crisis that was driven from COVID and how he, as an operator is handling this to protect his investor’s capital and the assets that he manages. This is Non-Beta Alpha.

                                           Corey, welcome to the show. Thanks for joining us.

Corey Maple:                   Ryan, thanks for having me on.

Ryan Morfin:                    Really appreciate your time. I know it’s a very dynamic time in the hotel industry. The RevPAR is nationally this week, about $15 and 61 cents. ADR is about $74 and national occupancies about 21%. These are unheard of times in the hotel industry. I was hoping you could come on today to tell us a little bit about what the hotel industry was doing and trending prior to this exogenous shock. What’s been happening over the last six to eight weeks in your industry and what you’ve been doing as an operator to combat this unprecedented revenue and demand issue. And then what’s your view of the hotel industry and the outlook going forward. So thanks for coming on.

Corey Maple:                   Well, like I said, I’m happy to be here. So things were just moving along pretty steady state. The RevPAR growth was matching the growth of the economy. Everything had pretty much stabilized, obviously since our last big disruption. And I got into this business in 2009, because there was a great opportunity to start acquiring assets. If you want a positive outlook, we’re in that exact same situation today. I know that when we were monitoring this as was everybody else all through the winter, because you saw all this activity in China and I think, I don’t know that we all closed, turned a blind eye to this because of MERS and SARS and how those deals really did not pan out as far as becoming a pandemic. And then all of a sudden in the early part of March, the world changed, as we all know.

                                           And that first week and a half was pretty trying because we saw occupancy plummeting, RevPAR plummeting, fortunately across the board were able to fairly maintain our ADR, average daily rate. But we could see where it was going and it looked like it was going to zero. And that’s stressful, let me tell you. I’ve never had a lot of stress in my life, but that certainly was a different situation.

Ryan Morfin:                    Especially because this was nothing to do, you had no control over it and it wasn’t any decisions you guys have made that impacted the operations.

Corey Maple:                   I saw, it was about a week ago in the Wall Street Journal, that 33% of renters did not make their rent payments. So this is cascading throughout our entire economy.

Ryan Morfin:                    Well, and just to make you feel better, I think a lot of national retail chains have halted all rental payments and we work in a few of their portfolios, New York City, for instance, made zero payments to their landlords in March and April. And so, yeah, no, it is, it’s an unprecedented at the time, for sure.

Corey Maple:                   There’s not a safe real estate class out there, I don’t think, I mean, it’s just across the board. So I guess after we went through that first week and a half, we did a lot of work just assembling data, so we could start projecting. We ran break even analysis on every single one of our hotels. We started negotiating with the banks as far as payment holidays, so we just didn’t stop making payments. Fortunately we have strong balance sheets in all of our portfolio funds and so we were able to depend on the cash that we had on hand that was built up. But at the same time, cash only runs so far unless you’d take decisive action. And each of the hotels, we have contingency plans in place for every hotel that we own and those were two phase plans. Well, we quickly discovered that there’s a third phase in this. We were prepared for a 25% drop in RevPAR like we saw in 2008 and 2009, no one had any clue what you do when RevPAR goes down to 15 or 14 or $12.

Ryan Morfin:                    Historical context for our viewers. So 9/11 in 2008, the max revenue drop was 25%. And here we’re looking at maybe as high as 90%. You’re looking at RevPAR dropping in urban centers at 81%, nationally down to 69%. Bridgewater, the hedge fund from Ray Dalio expects almost $200 billion of revenues from publicly traded companies to be erased in 2020 and as high as 920 billion from private hotel operators. So this is a huge impact to the earnings and the economy and unprecedented impact for an industry. So wanted to help set that stage as you talk about some of the growth data points that you’ve been focusing in on.

Corey Maple:                   So through those first couple of weeks, we rewrote all of our plans. We start executing against, certainly we got to level two within about a week, but then we rolled out level three and then level four. Level four involves all but shuttering a hotel. We haven’t had to go there yet. But on the level three side, we got down to bare minimum staff, we watch our staffing levels. Now we’re running about 25, 26% occupancy. So that’s above industry average. Our RevPAR is down significantly, but it’s not as bad as the rest of, if you look at the industry as a whole. And I think one of the reasons for that is we happen to be mostly in the United States, in the Heartland of America and our outliers are in markets like Virginia Beach, which during the 2008 recession, it was the best performing, while the rest of the world was down 25%, it was down 3.8%.

                                           And that’s still the best performing, but now we’re talking 32% occupancy and that’s the best, the best of the top 25 markets. So it’s a completely different situation, as we’ve said a couple of times. But rather than cutting back all of our salaried employees, obviously you have to keep your GM on board, we kept our director of sales in every hotel, our DOS and that, I think, is what’s made a big difference. I’ll give you an example, we have a hotel in Virginia Beach, the DOS has a good relationship with Dominion Energy, she saw this storm coming that rolled through there on the 13th, called up the Dominion, they fill up the hotel for two nights with linemen and that’s in a time when there’s no occupancy.

                                           So you have to be nimble and you have to look for opportunities. Most people are just hunkering down. Full service luxury hotels are the hardest hit, they’re down 96% in the last numbers I saw on occupancy, 4% occupancy is what those guys are running. And that’s because they depend almost solely on group business, groups, meetings, and conventions. And those are the first things that went away in 2008, they’re the first things that went away here. I mean, there’s not gatherings of more than 10 people, unless it’s a Trump rally outside of a Capitol building, right?

Ryan Morfin:                    Yeah. Something like 96% of all global destinations are closed right now. So it’s unheard of. And so limited service though, what I would call, mission critical travel, people that are mobilizing, are going to be the folks that utilize, I think, limited service. And so maybe talk about maybe the historical break evens to limited, and then what you think the break evens are today and what the outlook looks like for the industry.

Corey Maple:                   Well on a standardized basis, around 50% is break even and that’s without that service. Excuse me, it’s about 40% without debt service and with debt service you’re in the low 50s, depending on your leverage, of course. Our debt ratios are in the low 50s, so we don’t have a tremendous amount of debt. And in the situation we’re in now, it’s between 30 and 38%, depending on the hotel. And that’s generalized on a RevPAR or excuse me, an occupancy basis where you have about a hundred dollar RevPAR. And again, I’m generalizing because every single property has different numbers. And so as we went into our phase three response, we’re running at a deficit, but it’s a manageable deficit and then we can see this rebound.

                                           I was looking at the curves yesterday afternoon and it looked like on the 4th of April, we hit our lowest occupancies system wide and now we’ve come back and it’s not building quickly, but it is building. I think the Nader was about 18%, we’re up to about 24, 25% system wide now. And I attribute that to the effectiveness of our sales teams, going out there, reassuring clients, we’ve implemented high sanitization cleaning procedures in the hotels.

Ryan Morfin:                    I’d love you the maybe go into that because that’s going to drive consumer confidence substantially. If I’m going to go start traveling again and all the luxury hotels are closed, because they’ve got much higher cost structures and I’m going to need to start traveling for mission critical travel, what can a hotel operator do to make sure that I feel that I won’t catch coronavirus at a hotel bathroom or a room that has been cleaned? What confidence can a hotel give it’s traveling public?

Corey Maple:                   So we’ve adopted Ecolab’s sanitization system. We’ve always used their products and they were very responsive and came out with a set of guidelines. So you’re wiping down all of the hard surfaces in the common areas, at least hourly, sometimes more often, depending on the traffic. Front desk gets sprayed on after every transaction, for every guest comes and leaves. You’ll wipe down all the exterior doors and interior door handles of every room, twice a day, certainly before the cleaning crew goes in and then after they leave. And it’s really just making yourself present with good chemicals that will effectively eradicate the virus if it exists in the hotel.

Ryan Morfin:                    Yeah, no doubt the public is going to need to get educated on that. And I think, the more you do that to the business community, I think they’ll start getting confidence to start traveling again. I know you guys are tied to the airline industry, low jet fuel prices have really driven travel and made business travel much more affordable. Now that the industry has gotten a bailout in the airline industry, what type of bailout, if any, does the hotel industry feel like they’ve gotten and does the current fed cares act stimulus really help you guys because it’s asking you guys to keep the employees in place, even though most people are reducing variable costs 100%. What has the government done for the hotel industry and is it sufficient what they’ve done?

Corey Maple:                   Well, mostly it’s under the PPP, the payroll protection plan, that portion of the cares act. So we were one of the first applicants in, the day it opened up, we had all of our applications in, we’ve received funds for every single one of our hotels. Now that’s based on your 12 month historical payroll and we’ll get essentially two months worth forgiven. So as things open back up, we’ll bring more and more employees back on, probably quicker than we would otherwise. And yet all the maintenance, all of the deferred maintenance done in the hotel, we’ll deep clean the entire hotel. So when things do move back to normal, we’ll be far ahead of the curve and using that to our advantage. So that’s going to be beneficial.

                                           The remainder of those loans, you get two and a half times payroll, is at a 1% interest rate. So that’s going to be helpful too, just from stockpiling operational cash. And that’s been our position is we minimize cash expenditures, maximize the amount of cash on our balance sheet and that’s what’s going to get us through this and that’s what’s going to enable us to recover more quickly. That’s the other benefit of having your DOS’s work all of their relationships and build new ones, is because when it does come back, who are the businesses, who are the groups going to use when travel resumes? It’s going to go to the people who’ve been in contact with them. We did the exact same thing in 2008 and all of our properties recovered very quickly afterwards, in proportion to our comp set. So we got a disproportionate share of business because of it and I’m confident, we’ll see the same result this time.

Ryan Morfin:                    So what percentage of labor force of hotels have been furloughed or laid off at this point? Would you say majority, 80%?

Corey Maple:                   Majority. I would say, let me think, I don’t have our numbers, but I know our payroll is down at least 60% and it might be more. We run our payroll in staggered weeks, so I don’t have that report in front of me, but it’s at least 60, probably 70.

Ryan Morfin:                    And so it’s interesting, the cares act because it’s written off of payroll, the hotel industry doesn’t see June 30th as an end date for demand to be turned back on. I at least I don’t think. Most sectors don’t. So it’s basically a 1% loan to the hotel industry and it’s forgivable loan for everybody else who’s kept their employees on, is that the right way to look at how the hotel industry’s taking the capital?

Corey Maple:                   Yes. And we still have employees and we’ll get relief for that. And like I said, when we get into [inaudible 00:15:59], we’re going to bring a lot of people back on, just to make sure that we get ahead of everything while we have the opportunity to. That means we’ll put people back to work and you know that there’s people out there not happy sitting at home without a job. The $1,200 checks that people are getting are not putting to tide them over for the rest of the year, they want to get back to work and we will be there for them, we’ll bring our employees back on.

Ryan Morfin:                    And do you think the hotel industry, I know Arnie Sorenson went in with a bunch of the execs in the industry, to go pound the table for $150 billion bailout. Has anything come of that conversation or do you guys expect anything to come of that conversation for a bailout for the industry?

Corey Maple:                   We haven’t seen anything yet. I think that there’s a lot of industries that have troubles. The nice thing about the airline industry, if non-competition is nice, is there’s five or six major carriers that drive the vast majority of the domestic business. So they were able to easily speak with one voice. You don’t have that in the hospitality industry. There’s 10,000 owner operators out there and so it’s hard to get a single voice other than at the franchise level. And I know that IHG Intercontinental Hotel Group, Marriott, Hyatt, and Hilton are on the business recovery task force that Trump has put together. So there is a voice there, I don’t know exactly what’s going to come out of this as far as direct relief.

Ryan Morfin:                    Well, you told me on a call earlier that I thought was fascinating and it was very creative and this is what’s going to separate the good operators from the bad. As people are working from home and they’re looking for ways to maybe not go back to their office, because their office is closed. You guys came up with a creative solution for folks to get some space and some quiet opportunities to work. Do you mind sharing a little bit of that?

Corey Maple:                   Absolutely. Because we’ve spread it, we spread it around to all of the major hotel chains too, and told them what we’re doing. It’s called office away. And there’s a lot of people who can’t effectively work from home for one reason or another and we’ve provided a platform for them to rent the room for five days a week. They get the weekends thrown in because we’re not to use the room anyway. We do what’s called very light touch cleaning in there, so they basically have an office away from their home, office away. And the nice thing about our hotels, it’s not shared HVAC systems. They have what are called P-TECH units in the rooms and so the air is vented outside and so you don’t have exchange of air between rooms and so everybody’s in their own little cocoon. They walk in the front door, as the door is open up, they don’t have to touch anything. They can go to their office away from home and sit down and work.

                                           And so that’s been effective and it’s certainly giving people options. And that’s a lot of what we’re doing, is trying to provide, like you said, creative solutions that will help people make their way through this and be as productive as they can be.

Ryan Morfin:                    And what would that room go for? Are you charging by the week, by the month? Is it a daily rate? How do you price that?

Corey Maple:                   Yeah, so we price it as a daily rate or contract for one week at a time. And so we’re running system-wide about 85% of our normal average daily rate. So we haven’t seen a lot of compression in our rate, which is great because that can hurt you as much as occupancy. If your occupancy is down to 25% and your rate was 120 and now it’s 60, that’s a double whammy. So we’ve only seen about, like I said, about 18% system-wide erosion in our ADR. So we’re pricing it, not competitively, I mean, we’re pricing it to fit what the market will bear. Our average daily rate usually runs around 120 bucks system-wide and so now they’re running about 100 bucks.

Ryan Morfin:                    Well and that’s, I think, one of the differentiators of having a strong operator. I actually, after we had that conversation, I called a few hotels regionally just to see what they were doing, if I could rent a room for a month or a week for just business purposes. And it was the big chains that said no, and it was the smaller, probably smaller business owner operators that were willing to consider or work something out. And for a lot of our viewers across the country, it could be a good way, We have calls with our advisors probably every week and I talk to them and they say one of the big areas is the productivity being at home, now that the schools are closed, not being able to get focused on work or wife realizes that the honey do list is now of timing essence. So they’re trying to get out of the house and it’s a perfect idea.

                                           So I’d heartily recommend all of our advisors to get out there and call their a local limited service hotel provider and negotiate a good rate. Just because your office is closed, doesn’t mean you can’t find a place to work quietly. And I think it’s a brilliant idea, of course. So hats off to you guys.

Corey Maple:                   This is an active program. We’re going out and promoting it to all the local businesses and that’s part of that whole sales effort. It’s not being passive and just happen to have rooms available, it’s educating the public about their options.

Ryan Morfin:                    So as we go towards the day after coronavirus, which at some point we’ll start to see the exit sign, the exit ramp, if you will, how do you view and how does the industry view the repair of this demand destruction that’s gone on from an occupancy level? How do we step back in terms of expectations for national occupancy levels to repair itself? Right now, we’re 21% nationally, how does it step back up? What’s the step function look like over time?

Corey Maple:                   So CVRE and Smith Travel Research have put together some recovery curves, and we’re using that to model out the rest of the year and into next year. And they accelerate fairly rapidly, about a month after things start loosening up. So they model this against China and we’re not China, thank goodness, but that’s the only model that they can base anything off of. So the shortest recovery curve is about 10 months, we’re back to system-wide 64.8% occupancy. That’s what the hotel business was up through last year, excuse me. So the longest curve is about 20 months, so now you’re pushing a year and a half out before you get back. So the reality is probably somewhere in between there. I think it’s a factor of how quickly the economy gets rolling again.

                                           The hotel industry is a harbinger of how the economy is doing. That as it recovers, the hotel industry will go in lock step, as it goes down, same thing, but you’ll see it. And we can see the cascading effect in other industries, it’s just very noticeable in hospitality. So I know this is going to be a direct function of economic recovery. If we’re in an extended recession, it’s going to be the slower curve, the 20 month curve. If we can crank the machinery back up and get operating again, we’ll be closer to the eight month. And we’re prepared for all of those scenarios.

Ryan Morfin:                    And so right now, I mean, you have low leverage and I think that’s a blessing, some of your higher leverage competitors that were doing opportunistic plays or turnarounds, maybe shed some light on what is an operator’s view towards, okay, I need to mothball this and shut it down and just wait for the demand recovery, versus try to be opportunistic and try to grab some demand where it becomes available. At what point do you think some of these competitors have to mothball the properties and turn off the competition? Which would hopefully help folks like you guys get back on track a lot quicker.

Corey Maple:                   So generally you’ll see ownership groups that have a couple of properties in the market, will have already shut one down. So that’s standard practice. But the best way to lose your equity is to not have a relationship with your bank or have the bank start the foreclosure process. And we’re going to see a fair amount of that. And the thing is, there’s a lot of these folks who got into the hotel business in 2004 or five, six, seven, because everybody and their brother could make money in a hotel, it’s easy. And now you’re seeing the ramifications of having inexperienced operators or inexperienced owners running hotels, is they don’t understand and now they’re scared. And that’s what brings opportunity. There was tremendous opportunity for those who were brave enough to step into the waters in 2008, nine and 10, those were the biggest discounts. There’s going to be tremendous opportunities over the next year.

Ryan Morfin:                    Yeah. I mean, they’re starting to say that there’s the opportunity to lose more than $500 million of room revenue per day. I mean, that’s a huge impact to the economy. And I mean, that’s, I think, where we’re at right now. So if you can think about it, you’re burning about $3.5 billion every week in this industry, so this is a huge impact to the country’s GDP. And so it’s really going to be important that two things happen. One, we balance the opening up of the economy with the economic repair that needs to go on. What’s your view on when’s the right time to open up the economy?

Corey Maple:                   Well, I think they should do it right now, but I’m also cold and heartless. Because you think, does the cure kill the patient? And if that happens, what’s the true impact? If we were to go into a depression, think about the trials and tribulations that our grandparents went through in the 30s and how long that lasted in the American psyche and how it had profound impacts, even today, on how we operate. Socialism got its foothold in the United States, under FDR, in the 30s and we’re seeing a resurgence of that even before this happened. And you look at all of the people who were harmed during the great depression, there’s a balance there, and you’d never want to see a human life taker. We as a species, we as humanity want to protect not only our families, but our grandparents, our children and people that we don’t even know. It’s critical that we do that. That’s the foundation of our society.

                                           But at the same time, you have to make a decision and I don’t know if there’ll be enough courage at either the national level or even at the state level, to try to get things rolling again, because of the political repercussions, if quite a few people die.

Ryan Morfin:                    Yeah, no doubt. I think we’re all going to get this virus, I don’t think that’s debatable, it’s just, at what point do you get it and how do we manage the overflow of cases into the health systems? New York City seems to have achieved a measurable amount of cases and the health system has been able to retain the flow of patients, thank God. And that’s really a tribute to the people in New York staying home, the doctors, the nurses being brave enough to do that. I’m afraid that some of the other parts of the country don’t have the same health system that New York City does, it’s one of the best in the country. And it’s going to be interesting to see how other states that haven’t really had the caseload, when they finally do get it, how they interact.

                                           But I want to throw some statistics at you and for our viewers and we’ll put a slide up here on the presentation. It’s from the American Hotel Lodging Association. It talks about the job impacts, loss of job impacts from the last two crisis’s. And so 2001 in 9/11, we had about 400,000 jobs lost and the occupancy bottomed out at about 59% nationally and the recession of ’07 and ’09, we had 470,000 jobs lost and occupancy only went down to 54%. Right now, we’re at about 21%, as we mentioned, and we’ve had about 3.4 million people furloughed or laid off. That’s a lot of families. And they’re losing about $2.4 billion a week in earnings. And the longer that we don’t repair this demand and come up with a scalable testing option, I think it’s going to impact and leave a permanent scar on the economy.

                                           So there’s probably going to be a lot of your competitors that don’t make it in this space. Maybe they don’t have good relationships with the lenders, or they took a bridge loan, or they’ve got a mez lender who may get capital called. Opportunistically, looking ahead over the next 24 months, how will this dynamic really play out as an opportunity for investors, as it relates to future acquisitions or development, what do you think the competitive set, how much does it shrink and what is exciting from a new acquisition standpoint for you?

Corey Maple:                   Well, Smith Travel Research projects that there’ll be about 50% of rooms lost over the next year. They figure that that will come back, majority of those rooms will come back online. But what’s the big dynamic that’s going to change is there will be no new construction for two or three years. The only new rooms coming online are going to be the ones that are already in construction and they can’t stop. So from that standpoint, we’re going to have no new supply and demand will continue to ramp back up. If the economy gets back to growing at two, three, 4% a year, at some point after this, there’ll be a lag of a couple of years before that new supply comes back. So I think we’ll be in a really good position for, as this recovers, to have a number of years of good solid growth.

                                           The other thing is, I know we didn’t have inflation after the last recession, but with $2 trillion of new currency being printed, that has to have at some point an effect on the money supply. And if the money supply is diluted, we have to, you would think, see inflation. And that’s one of the nice things about renting your rooms every night, is you change your rate every day. So you can respond real quickly to any change in inflation and make your adjustments accordingly. So I think the combination of those things, this is a great industry to be in if you’re willing to stomach the risk side, the variability in an income, especially in times like this. But again, this industry is not alone. It’s every industry, other than maybe the grocery store industry is doing all right and Zoom.

Ryan Morfin:                    Yep, Zoom, Costco. Yeah, absolutely. There’s some essential providers of critical services that are going to do really well now. Have you thought about alternative use cases? What is the industry talking about? Maybe repurposing assets to maybe affordable housing or skilled nursing, looking for other use cases for rooms that may not have the demand over the next, if we say 20 months out, before we get to back to, call it January 2020 occupancy, national occupancy levels. What have you been thinking about, or what are other operators thinking about for this type of conversation?

Corey Maple:                   Well, we haven’t at all. We’ve had discussions with the national guard, if it would come to where they’d have to deploy national guard units in cities, where they turn the hotels into barracks, we’ve talked about using it as field hospitals, but as far as over the next 12 months, I’m sure that some will be repurposed, I’m sure some won’t make it, and there’ll be a contraction in supply and it changes the entire dynamic going forward. But if you can weather this next 10 months or acquire in these next 10 months, now you’re in a position to really reap the benefits once stabilization occurs.

Ryan Morfin:                    And as an industry, I don’t know if you have any view, how much cash does the typical hospitality company keep on hand and what runway do you think they have as an industry to cover the shortfalls, if you will, on the expense structure?

Corey Maple:                   Well, I think most banks are working with their borrowers. So there’s relief, I think, not across the board, certainly CMBS lenders haven’t changed their practices, but local banks and even large banks have been accommodating, but that can only last so long, the banks need the cashflow as well. They have their capital to service. So at some point there’s going to be a come to Jesus on all of this, and at that point, there’s going to be operators who don’t make it.

                                           Most operators do not have significant cash balances and especially hotels that are owned by small ownership groups, there’s going to be capital calls coming. And there’s a lot of those people who are going to be financially strapped, even fairly well heeled people and they will not answer those capital calls. They’ll get diluted out, those partners in those deals who have the money, are going to have to put up a significant amount of money in order to tide the way through and there’s a lot of people that are going to be looking for some out in this. And there’s not a lot of options available to them, frankly, unless there is another bailout and specifically at this industry.

Ryan Morfin:                    Seems like it may be the early stages of a blueprint for an interesting hospitality investment strategy into the next 12 to 24 months.

Corey Maple:                   Well, we’ll find out, we think so. Like I said, in the bleakest times is when the greatest opportunities exist.

Ryan Morfin:                    Agreed. Well, Corey, thank you so much for joining us and giving us some insights and sharing your story. We appreciate it and we wish you guys and your team the best.

Corey Maple:                   Well Ryan, you’re a superstar thank you and happy day everyone.

Ryan Morfin:                    Happy day. Thank you. Thanks for listening to Non-Beta Alpha and before we go, please remember to subscribe and leave us a review on our Apple podcast or a YouTube channel. This is Non-Beta Alpha and now, you know.

 

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