While he fears the unknown surrounding these current events, he believes that there are still great investment opportunities to be exploited during this crisis. Moody explains that there are “gateway cities” that will continue to grow and thrive like Austin, Nashville, and Seattle.
Ryan Morfin: Welcome to Non-Beta Alpha. I’m Ryan Morfin. On today’s episode, we have Brett Moody, the founder of Moody National. Today, he’ll talk to us a little bit about the global real estate environment, and what has changed post-COVID, after the Great Pause. This is Non-Beta Alpha.
Brett Moody, thank you today for coming on the show. I appreciate your time.
Brett Moody: It’s good to be with you, Ryan.
Ryan Morfin: Well, you guys own a large portfolio of real estate, over 200 transactions you guys have completed in your career. Can you tell us a little bit about your views of commercial real estate going into 2020, and maybe a little bit about how the coronavirus shock has changed your perspective?
Brett Moody: How long do we have Ryan, today?
Ryan Morfin: As long as you want.
Brett Moody: And as long as I can do a recap, because I think at the end of my monologue, my perspective may have changed depending on the new information. There’s a lot of science coming at us, a lot of market information coming at us, and there’s just a ton of uncertainty. It’s hard to really get a grip on where we are. I think we have some major themes that we see in the works and [inaudible 00:01:47] in real estate, and in the market in general, and I think it’s going to be a wait and see in general, to see how it pans out. We know that the culture has been pushed forward into technology, and just forced to advance, like our call today. Instead of an in the face meeting where we would love to come out and sit with you and your guys and have a face-to-face meeting, and today we’re doing it by a webcam.
So I think we’ll see a lot more of that in almost every industry. The Amazon effect has really sprung forward, and retailers that are able to take the product off the shelf and deliver that to the consumer with the methodology that is seamless, then they’re going to thrive, they’re going to survive, and we think that those that can not do that will not be in business. I think you’ll have a blockbuster, right? A Kodak, Polaroid, you’re going to see companies that were household names no longer in existence, just due to the shift that’s going to take place in the consumer demand. This economy was really humming on average, as you know, it’s 70% is consumer spending of the GDP, and we were up to almost 90 before the setback of COVID-19, coronavirus.
So how that consumer comes back, I don’t think a light switch is going to flip on and then all of a sudden, we’re back at a healthy GDP of where we left off, but I do think we will get somewhat of a springboard, as people are released from their cells of shelter in place, and back into the marketplace. I think there’s a lot of catch-up activity that’s going to take place, but I think that is not the same as saying, “We’re just going to all return to some type of previous marketplace experience that we had prior to COVID”. So that’s going to be interesting.
Real estate in specifically, we were humming the multi-family, we’re adding units. We had added 254,000 units nationally last year, but we absorbed 299, so 300,000 of those were absorbed. Office space was tightening in most of your major metropolitan markets. You had steady RevPAR growth in the last 12 months, we had about 1% on a national average, but your major metros, your top 25 metros, had about a 35% premium to that. So those major metropolitan markets were outperforming the nation as a whole, and we’re seeing that in multi-family, we’re seeing a flight-to-quality in office, which in our hometown in Houston, was interesting to watch, just the demand of the new millennial worker wanting to have a live-work-play environment, wanted to really be in an office environment that was lively, updated, fresh, all your latest technology from the elevators, and to food service that was easy, fresh, organic, healthy, lots of options.
And so, business owners were trying to create that environment companies needed to be in a massive activity center, but I do see that there was a flight from downtown because of the congestion and how that would eat on a commute, especially for cities like Houston, that don’t have a mass transit. And so across the South, you have many major metros that have difficulty getting in and out of the CBD or your massive activities centers like the Galleria in Houston with almost 30 million square feet of office space. And so it’s going to be different.
I think there’s going to continually be that press forward to bring people into a better standard of living where your commute is condensed, your choices that you have for food and activities before and after work, your gym, your place of socialization with your peer group and friends, and that’s coming a big factor. And as everyone has been home and experienced, I think not being at work for 50 hours a week, I think that when they come back, I think they’re going to increase their social lives as well. And companies are going to have to cooperate with that new lifestyle. So it’s going to be interesting.
Ryan Morfin: I think productivity is going to be an interesting calculation going forward. I do think a lot of folks have had time to take some inventory of how they spend their time in the Great Pause and are looking for more life work balance. And I think technology, as we found is really the great equalizer. People are able to do a lot of work that they were otherwise having to do in the office from home. And I think with the unemployment rate at where it’s at, I think you have a lot of people honestly working diligently from home. So the genie’s out of the bottle on some of this office space. How do you think office space is going to change though? Do you think it’s going to be more per square foot per employee needed for companies? Or do you think that people are going to stay with the same floor plans and try to maybe rotate workers, let more flexible work from home kind of unfold?
Brett Moody: That’s a great question. Days of old you know kind of a rule of thumb 250 square feet per person. I know in our office building, as of late, we’ve seen that condense and move closer to 200, a trading floor maybe is as high as just slightly below 150, but in our current office building that is a new development, we’re seeing people push their four plates to literally 150 180, for not even a trading floor, but I see that expanding that was pre COVID. And I know I was pretty when I saw the four plates of various companies moving in and so the dense, even though they had mini huddle rooms and relaxation rooms, and there were different types of private phone rooms for those that were in workstations, that they could go in and make a private call, those exist, but they were pretty tight.
And I do see that relaxing a bit and having a little bit more space in between the desk going forward. And I don’t know if anybody’s going to redesign, but I think that’ll be a factor going forward. So I do think we’ll see some relaxing of that tightening.
Ryan Morfin: And you have a lot of relationships in the real estate market. What are you hearing about the WeWorks in the reaches of the world. How are they performing as office tenants to landlords?
Brett Moody: Unfortunately, that probably has to do more with credit and on the WeWork side. And then usually when you have a bellwether in the space, like WeWork, it’s experiencing difficult credit facilities like it or not, they usually works it way through the rest of the participants in that space. So they’re not the desire tenant that they would previously been. I was just looking at a large building last night and WeWork had two floors. And you could understand by the tone of the conversation that they were not full, they were not occupied. And the landlord was not that excited about … it was more of a caution light than it was a, “We’re excited to have WeWork thinking they might expand”. And I know landlords are finding a difficult time getting that through their credit committees for approval.
Ryan Morfin: It’s definitely going to be interesting to see how that tenant nationally plays out. We’ve heard some horror stories on the East coast they’ve been not paying rent and it’s probably going to ripple through the office market here, a little more robustly.
Brett Moody: But I do think the concept is going to remain. I think you’re going to have building owners and landlords continuing to allow for … Ryan, I lost you somehow. There we go. And so I think you’re going to have landlords trying to provide space for the WeWork type of situation, where you have smaller startups that maybe need 10 to 15 desks. And then they don’t know if they’re going to need 45 or pin at a reduced number in the near future. So those that are expanding and contracting that concept is a good concept. It was just the … I think the amount and the aggressive take down of space that we saw with WeWork prior to having the financing behind them was just not the most ideal situation for them to be leading that charge. But I think the concept will stay. I think you’re seeing landlords provide space in new buildings and old buildings, converting space for that concept of a shared four plate for different companies that are expanding and tracking.
Ryan Morfin: And to stay in office just a little bit longer, you mentioned the flight to quality and office, but with the lack of we’ll call it choice on standard of living and commute times being tested underneath the guise of productivity gains from technology. Do you think that suburban office will become a more desirable subtype of office versus the CBD downtown?
Brett Moody: That’s a great question. The polarization, if you will, between the two is a little bit of a misnomer because you’ll find Macs. If we mentioned earlier massive activity centers that will be at points in between the CBD, the central business district, the downtown, and the immediate suburb, where they’re just single family rooftops and their local grocery anchored retail. And so there are some Macs in between, and I think you’ll see that those Macs in between will begin to be a little bit more fruitful, a little bit higher occupancy and become more developed.
So I do see a migration out of the CBD and into these Macs that are serving these bedroom communities, if you will, or the area of which much of your commuters are coming from. It’s not to say, “I do not think CBD is going away by any means”. As a matter of fact, we just see a flight to quality in downtown by larger companies. Some companies need 20 floors or five floors of a high rise and many law firms and accounting firms need to be downtown. Many of your large oil and gas for instance, want to be downtown in Houston. And they just feel that that’s where they need to be. So I don’t think CBDs go away, but I do think you’ll see expansion, medium sized companies float out and not find the need to be in the CBD.
Ryan Morfin: In a corollary, because it impacts the credit of tenancy. You brought up oil and gas and you’re in Houston and Houston still has a tremendous amount of it’s MSA GDP correlated to oil and gas industry. What are your thoughts about what’s going on? It seems like the oil markets are in a dangerous dynamic. What are people on the Houston real estate market thinking about some of the major tenants that they have in that industry?
Brett Moody: It’s a great question. In the olden days it used to be, “As all the gas goes, so goes Houston”. We’ve found some relief from that over the past decade or so healthcare, technology, financial services. So oil has been reduced to about 30%. The 30% is still a large number in any GDP. And so there’s going to be pain, the volatility and the production decline that needs to take place at this moment in time due to the lack of demand, it’s just inevitable. And as you’ve seen the tankers line up off the coast of California, and they’ve gone from charging 25,000, I think for a ship stores to 250,000. So storing that oil is just the phenomenon taking place from the oversupply. Is that going to change? Yes. How long will that take?
I don’t think anybody really knows, it depends on OPAC and depends on Russia and it depends on, “Are people going to take the discipline to cut back that supply”, but we’re going to see that happen. I don’t think any of us think the oil and gas demand is not going to rebound whether that’s three months or six months, it’s a big story, but like in any industry, there’s some companies that had great balance sheets. There’s some hedge bonds. There’s one hedge bond I was talking with yesterday that they’d raised $7 billion. They’d only put out a billion. So they’re going to really enjoy this market, come back and buying assets from those companies that not have a good balance sheet. And you’re going to see a lot of companies in bankruptcy, not only in the oil and gas side, but on the retail side, as we mentioned earlier. So you’re going to see a reshuffling of the deck for those that were anticipated this and had the right balance sheet. And those that were not prepared.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, no. And I do think you guys are the home of the … we’ll call it the majors, right? And I do think some of these marginal producers are going to be the ones that get really, really crushed. And it maybe short term pain may be really longterm gain for the multinationals that call Houston home. So it might be a consolidating industry move and strengthen the credit longterm. You have a very interesting portfolio. And before we go to the hotel side, I’d love to just ask you. So I looked at where your geographic distribution of properties has been over your career and it’s in great markets. And so maybe you could share a little bit about what you were looking for in a market to grow into, to buy assets and then maybe how that might have changed with the coronavirus.
Brett Moody: Yeah, that’s a great question, Ryan. In general, we like major metropolitan markets and then we also pursue those major metropolitan markets. We think they’re going to outperform in general, the rest of the country, and they do, rent seem to increase more in CBDs and Macs and major metros than in the Midwest, for instance. And so we concentrate on those, but we also want to be in those gateway cities that are going to even outperform the balance of the other major metros. And so we found those in Seattle. We find those in Denver, we find those in Nashville. We find those in Austin. And so we have a … we like to call them silicone juniors. Hard to have a startup in Silicon Valley, now I’m in the garage is a $200,000 outfit, right? So we see just some of the younger, talented human capital in some of those other major metropolitan markets like Austin and Nashville and Denver and Phoenix and Seattle.
And so we want to focus on those types of markets. We have a hotel portfolio out there now that has about 67% in those top 10 markets like Austin, 22% in Austin, 20% in Nashville, 17% in Seattle, they’re 15 in Dallas Fort worth, which is been a tremendous job growth market for the last few years. And so we like that type of setting to deploy our capital in. We feel like the water’s going to rise. And even though real estate, still a local business and a local corner business to have the right building and the right market, we will be in those markets. We think that water’s going to rise on all asset classes.
Ryan Morfin: And do you think … we were just on a call last week with Douglas Elliman, talking to them about the change in the residential demand in New York city. And they’re still bullish longterm, but there’s right now a lot of headlines about major metropolitan area starting to lose people to go to the suburbs or moved to other States. Do you think that the densification of some of these gateway cities may play out to be a inhibitor and may drive populations to want to leave those cities to go to a place with a little bit more home residential square footage per higher square foot per person.
Brett Moody: I would have thought that for decades, but Manhattan still seems to grow and to thrive and Boston continues to grow and to thrive. And history has just proven that not to be the case, but it’ll be interesting to see if COVID has a larger impact that we’ve seen in the past on that concept. So we do see a migration into the suburbs in a sense in your major metros and it has been going on, but at the same time you have some of the elderly moving out of their home they’ve lived in for 35 and moved into a not a work-live-in-play, but a live- in-play multifamily. They’ve watch the lawn care service mow their lawn for 20 years and aren’t going out and playing in it and aren’t in it. So they want to move into a multifamily property with restaurants and more options, social options for them. So that’s been a interesting move. That’s kind of backfield at the same time as we talk about the migration out.
Ryan Morfin: Well, one of the interesting trends over the last call up 10 years from the financial crisis to today was the development of single family rentals as an institutional asset class. It started off as a disaster from the last crisis and they got organized with major institutional capital providers coming in and organizing, and even taking some of these companies public. Now, that that’s what we’ll call institutional grade organizations that are renting out homes. Do you think that multifamily given the condensed nature of the tight cramp spaces versus SFR, there may be some pressure on people post COVID saying, “You know what, for the same amount of money I can rent a house that doesn’t have the common areas, but I don’t want a common area, I want my privacy, or I don’t want to be next to my neighbor. So close”. Do you think there’s going to be a tension between those two asset types going forward?
Brett Moody: I think it’s a great, great question. I think it be interesting to watch that play out. I don’t know that you have the availability and so when you have a market that’s expanding, I don’t think there’s the SFR, the single family residential that’s just readily available to have 10,000 new units available. So I’m just think it’s a small part of any given market and especially those markets that aren’t like a Mac where your concentration in density. So you’re buying single family residential and scraping it in building up mid-rise power rise or low rise multifamily to replace that. So in some of your growing markets, I don’t see that as being an impact. So do I think it has been, like you said, institutionalized Blackstone and others have come into that space and taking those entities public, I think they’re there to stay, but no, I don’t see it being a huge impact on some of your major Metro Mac areas, no.
Ryan Morfin: That’s a great point. No, the availability is still nascent and I agree. So going to that property type, you mentioned a moment ago that has been really the unfortunate bear of the demand destruction in the economy, the hotel industry, what’s your view of what’s going on and what is the demand curve or the recovery curve look like for the hotel industry?
Brett Moody: That’s a … you want to talk about multifamily, you said?
Ryan Morfin: Oh, so hotels, the demand recovery curve for the hotels.
Brett Moody: So you want to talk about multifamily?
Ryan Morfin: Oh, that’s what you meant. Okay.
Brett Moody: Unfortunately, we’ve been here before. In 2008, the hotels took it on the chin as well, not as drastically or precipitously, as we’ve seen occupancy decline in this COVID environment. And also, unfortunately we have a downtown Seattle hotel where Seattle was your very first case. And so Seattle was aggressive and we’re across from Amazon headquarters in downtown and Amazon was aggressive, right before there were any federal restraints, they were like, okay, “Don’t come to work, work from home”. And so we saw that. So we had a little bit … again, it was by happenstance that we happened to be on the forefront of experiencing aggressive regulations towards the fight of the virus and so we were prepared. We immediately … we probably had 55 to 60 employees at that asset and really went down to eight, almost overnight occupancy drop from mid seventies.
And we were all the way down to literally single digit occupancy in that asset. So our management team had some foreshadowing, if you will, of what was going to take place. And so, unfortunately that took place across the country. We do have one hotel that we actually closed Hampton in there in Austin, but we had a Homewood suites in the parking lot. So we were able to walk guests across the parking lot that would show up at the Hampton. But other than that, we did keep the hotels open, but it was on a skeleton staff. We are running literally sub 20%. Some are better than others. We did have the national guard in one hotel. We made a deal with the city in another municipality to house some of their workers and first responders. And so we’ve tried to make hay, but it has been just an unprecedented market.
Hotels are in a world of pain. Fortunately, again, the management team has been here before they were. We cut landscape, we cut contracts from food service. We just eliminated just jobs immediately. And I say, “Eliminate furloughed”. And so knowing that you think it’s going to go away and then it died. So you can always bring back. We’d much rather bring back a trained employee. They know that we don’t want to have to retrain someone. And so we immediately moved to a furlough situation.
So we were quick to respond. We had healthy balance sheet. It was a different story in 2008, we were in expansion mode. Our current portfolio in the hospitality was a little bit more mature. We were very low leverage. We were sub 50% leverage. We had substantial cash available to us and on our balance sheet. And so it’s a little bit different than 08, but it is much worse on the operations. And again, I don’t expect the light switch to come on and all of a sudden the hotels be full. I think it’ll be a gradual return to post COVID normalcy, whatever that looks like. But at least our portfolio at this time was a little bit better shape than it was in 2008.
Ryan Morfin: And do you think that’s a six, nine months curve to recovery or is it a 24 month curve? How fast is the American consumer, I guess build confidence to start traveling again?
Brett Moody: That’s a great question. I think the select service, for instance, I think it will recover faster than the full service. I think your business hotels and major metros are going to recover. You’re going to want to get out and see your customers, and you’re going to want to make that some of your first meetings before you and the family go off to a destination resort and hang out with thousands of other people that have large resorts. So I think that you’ll see the business Lex service come back first, and then I think you’ll see the major Metro business oriented full service back, and then your group business will follow. And then after that, I think you’ll see more leisure.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah. It’s funny. We have got two types of salespeople today, those who woke up during the Great Pause and always have a family, and they actually like the wife’s cooking or the other half of the coin who can’t wait to get back out on the road. And it’s going to be interesting to see if anyone wants to see those salespeople, because I think a lot of folks are cautious even … I think the sales folks that want to go on the road are willing and able, but I don’t know if there’s anyone that’s willing to go see them and so it’s going to need to be probably a bully pulpit type of a confidence building exercise for the nation to get back into the game and on the field.
Brett Moody: And I think the science is really going to help drive that path. And as we see that, if you … I think there’s some new science out that you do not have a pre morbidity condition, and you were between this age range between 20 and 60, your likelihood of being dramatically impacted reduced significantly. And so I think those groups will be the first to move back to a travel pattern. And then of course those that are more susceptible and vulnerable will be a little bit longer lag time.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, no, I think that’s right. I think unfortunately the data hasn’t really been very well organized globally, so I’m hoping we get better at that with more tests and a better information sharing across major operation centers. Well, no, I do appreciate. I have one final question, and I only bring it up because it’s in some of your marketing materials, but in 2008, you did something that I thought was really commendable and showed a lot of leadership and I think it’s worth sharing to a lot of our viewers today. During the financial crisis, you convinced, I think a lot of your employees, that you really do believe that they are the major asset in your company and you basically asked everybody to get together and take a companywide pay cut versus letting go a lot of their peers or their colleagues.
Maybe you could share a little bit about your thought about leadership on that, how that was received, how you got to that outcome. Because I think today a lot of CEOs need to be thinking about not only their responsibility to shareholders and the bottom line, but also if we don’t do more things like that in today’s economy and unemployment gets out of control to like 30%, I believe it’s just going to be a self fulfilling prophecy that we end up into a longer, more robust recession or depression. And I wonder if you don’t mind commenting a little bit about that.
Brett Moody: Yeah. There’s little different than this occurrence, the precipitous drop in COVID in 08, but you’re right. Unfortunately, we were in 2008 we had several large portfolios in different asset classes from multifamily to office to hospitality, hotels, and we wanted to survive, but of course you couldn’t keep the team. So we met with the key leaders of the company and decided that we would just all take pay cuts and try to keep the team together. We did that. We made it back and it was healthy. It was robust return. And when we were able to compensate everyone back for the funds that they had reduced from their compensation during the recession. And so that was a great wind. This time is a little bit different. We did have to shed some jobs where we furloughed on the hotels as I mentioned earlier, but we do want to be very quick to bring them back.
Fortunately, we had the federal government stepped in and has helped. They’ve increased the … and added additional to your employee unemployment benefits, which is going to help those that are home, but you’re right. Our economy needs to get back to work. Fortunately, we were coming off the lowest unemployment rates that we’ve had in decades, if not forever in our history in 2019. So it will be great to see us return to that. So it’s not that far in the rear view mirror. And it’s something that I think nobody sees out of reach. So I do think that we will come back strong. We were able to keep our team together this time. And I don’t know that it’s a beauty contest. I just don’t think there was anybody else out in the marketplace trying to attract your capital at this given time, but we do have a culture.
And I think it’s important for every company. And they’re going to have to look through that more and more in the future of creating that culture of a team and a great, just we talked about earlier, standard of living because people are reevaluating as they’re home with their families and they have more time away from work. You have time to reflect, “I really want to go back to that situation that I was in previously. And if not, what do I want to do next?” I think you’ll see a lot of that going on. And if you’re not one of those companies that have provided a healthy workplace for your associates, I think you’re going to see a deterioration of your capital, your human capital at that point. It’s a great question.
Ryan Morfin: I’ve interviewed a lot of entrepreneurs and one resounding trend that I found is a lot of them did a similar type of, “We’re all in this together” mentality in the last crisis. And they had tremendous outperformance in the last cycle. And so I commend you on that. I guess I’d leave it on a one final note. What keeps you up at night right now? And what are some positive silver linings you think about where we’re going as a country.
Brett Moody: That’s a great question. Let’s go with the positive first. The positive is there’s so many opportunities. We’re going to see opportunities that we’ve just longed for and to have the capital in place that we do. We have no one to speak about specific products, but we have the formation of a structure that’s post COVID that’ll be available. And so we’re excited to have a fresh product if you will, that will be deploying capital into the marketplace. So the value that we’ll find … I remember in 08 that we were one of those companies that we would have to sell some of our jewels and some of our gems that we had a lot of equity in because we needed to ascertain that equity so that we could keep the mothership afloat and they’re assets that I would wish that I had today, but we had to sell those.
So we know there’ll be companies that will need cash and they will need to sell some of their crown jewels and some of their finer assets. And there’s not going to be just a ton of people lined up to buy new assets. So with the deteriorating purchasing market and there’ll be some real buys and some values. So our value fund is set up to really take advantage of that. Very excited about that. What keeps me up at night is just the unknown. I’m not a scientist and even if were, I think there would be a scientist, it’s almost like economist, where there’s somebody that has a different forecast and they do not see it the way scientists are not in agreement with what’s going on.
There were two doctors that came out from I believe it is in Bakersfield in California. They put out a great information from their take on the front lines. And of course, unfortunately somebody sent me an email this morning that Google has taken that down. So YouTube has removed their comment to the marketplace, which I’ll take this opportunity to say, “That is a sad day for America, where two people that were obviously credible, I’m not saying they’re right, or they’re accurate. They were obviously credible they are both physicians, they’re both doctors that are emergency doctors, they’re on the front lines and they put forth their opinion and it was taken down from YouTube so that America cannot get an altered opinion in what we’re seeing promulgated or put out from the municipalities, governors and federal standpoint”.
So that’s unfortunate and it’s that type of misinformation or non information that does cause me to really be caution or put in caution where to deploy capital into what asset classes, because we don’t really have a clear picture yet, and that’s a risk that I cannot measure, and I shouldn’t be deploying capital in markets or an asset classes where I can’t measure the risk. So I do need the science to play out before we make any big bets.
Ryan Morfin: Yeah, and that’s great advice to all. Brett Moody, founder and CEO and chairman of Mooney National, we appreciate you joining us. It was fascinating conversation. And we’d love to have you back in the weeks, months ahead to take another indicator of where we are and have the conversation continue. So we thank you so much for your time.
Brett Moody: As long as it can be in person next time.
Ryan Morfin: That sounds better.
Brett Moody: Thank you Ryan.
Ryan Morfin: Thank you [crosstalk 00:38:54] Bye, bye. Thank you for watching Non- Beta Alpha . And before we go, please remember to subscribe and leave us a review on Apple podcasts or YouTube channel. This is Non-Beta Alpha, and now, you know.
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